7 of probably the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We had been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s totally self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely larger and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of horrifying Optimus robots that can sooner or later play board video games together with your children and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with rather a lot to say, Elon’s supply was low power, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some really outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted underneath an hour. Listed here are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims through the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the largest product ever of any variety

I feel the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with probably the most ludicrous claims of all. This one is so large that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, acknowledged the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I feel this would be the largest product ever, of any variety.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some critical contenders already for probably the most vital product ever of any variety. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel certainly needs to be in with a shout, proper? In response to Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out trying prefer it’s about to fall over, can be larger than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Certain it would, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually desire a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” The truth is, some might even need two. That is though the Optimus robotic is prone to price $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am certain should you requested somebody presently residing in a conflict zone or affected by famine what they might most prefer to spend $30,000 on, the reply would undoubtedly be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple option to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can inform you proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any manner that I need to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the various hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there is no manner that no less than one in every of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch fireplace, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve got 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion individuals will need one cannot be true; will probably be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% chance that digital tremendous intelligence will not be unhealthy

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, nevertheless it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In response to him, there’s an 80% likelihood digital tremendous intelligence can be a pressure for good. Sadly, the flip facet of which means that there is a one in 5 likelihood that AI will grow to be self-aware and launch nukes towards us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He might have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly definitely extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five likelihood of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the percentages.

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4 Anybody will be capable of have any services they need

Who’s paying for the ability, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people for the time being saying that expertise will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely lately, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog publish that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives will be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an analogous view of the long run; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it would usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will be capable of have any services they need; will probably be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work free of charge, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and power, each of which price cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing unit in China will imply you’ll purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is fascinating that every one the people who appear to be saying that tech will deliver a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Perhaps it would change into true — for them, no less than.

5 Your autonomous automobile can be used ten occasions extra typically than your present automobile

The concept is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is just a little contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nonetheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the common individual makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it may very well be used as a lot as ten occasions greater than automobiles are presently, making your automobile ten occasions extra useful.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then once you’re not utilizing it, you would put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking individuals the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It would not appear unreasonable that your automobile may very well be used for 100 hours within the week on this manner.

There are just a few points right here, nonetheless. Firstly, should you’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even should you do, there’s an issue with demand. You let individuals use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no downside. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite facet. Three homes alone can supply almost 300 hours of rides every week. It would not take lengthy earlier than the accessible hours from all of those autonomous automobiles vastly outstrip the demand, that means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in any case.

If someway demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten occasions as a lot as it’s presently, then the roads may have ten occasions the quantity of site visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will grow to be automobile shepherds with flocks of automobiles

If one Uber driver has 20 automobiles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

If you happen to’re an Uber driver anxious about dropping your supply of earnings, don’t fret, Elon has you coated. He envisions that as we speak’s Uber drivers will grow to be tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later may have fleets of 10-20 automobiles that they are going to take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the common Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a difficulty of demand. If an Uber driver as we speak goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, that means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It is not attainable for each driver as we speak to run a fleet of 20 automobiles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab can be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s monitor document says in any other case

Tesla

I did not suppose any declare may very well be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the largest product ever, however he managed to prime it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon mentioned that the Cybercab can be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon mentioned that the Cybertruck can be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, after we ought to have been in a position to begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is principally only a large automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, totally self-driving autonomous car that should endure rigorous security testing earlier than individuals go wherever close to one. The probabilities of that occuring earlier than 2027 are slim to none.